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WRITING ON THE WALL

Are Republicans seeing the future?


With Donald Trump's approval continuing to slide, and current trends suggesting the possibility of an electoral landslide for Democrats in November, Republicans are making perhaps the most radical move of the Trump presidency. They're breaking with the president.


In an ever-dystopian environment where the president manages to counter the facts with his own paralel reality at every development, Republicans have long rolled their eyes in private before publicly feigning ignorance or doubling down on the president's absurdity. But as Coronavirus numbers surge in Florida, Texas, and Arizona, the state Republicans there have are electing to believe the scientists and break with the president on public policy, stalling the reopening of businesses, becoming the first states to move backwards in the re-opening process.




FiveThirtyEight, a data analyst firm, compiles the state and national polls and filters them through sophisticated modeling.


This table shows the Democratic margin in relation to the country,

​as of June 25



Texas Governor Greg Abbott announced his state would stall re-opening. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis closed bars after Florida recorded 9,000 new cases Thursday, more than the record set a few days prior (though DeSantis is currently under fire for saying Florida is "cooking the books" on Coronavirus reports). And in Arizona, Governor Doug Ducey halted reopening after Arizona's numbers hit record highs in the wake of Trump's rally there after stopping to commemorate more of the infamous border wall's construction. Other critical states in November have also scaled back their re-opening plans: North Carolina, Nevada, Kansas, and Michigan, to name a few.


After hitting an average of 49% disapproval (with 46% approval) at the start of the pandemic, likely experiencing a "rally around the flag effect," Trump's disapproval now hovers around 56-58%, with only 40% or less approving. If this animus is reflected in the polls, Trump is cooked, and other GOP strategists are seeing it. Karl Rove was interviewed on Fox News last night and warned the Trump campaign that he is woefully behind. Michigan is polling Biden+10, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are polling at Biden+9, and even Arizona, North Carolina, and Texas are showing averages for Biden.


If these trends continue, Republicans will have no choice but to start jumping ship. Barrett Marton, GOP strategist, said it best to Politico: "Arizona has been one of the most rabid constituencies for Trump. It may not be the biggest, but it certainly has some of the most rabid fans. But as we have seen, it doesn't translate necessarily to the polls... People are talking about how Arizona is purple. I totally disagree, but Trump is making it."


Let's hope he continues to "make it."

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